Summary

The current forecast date is 06 June, showing data until 09 June.

The forecasting model is an unweighted ensemble of three individual models:

  1. unweighted time series ensemble model (autoregressive ARIMA, ETS and naive models)
  2. regression + 7-day-lagged cases (cases mapped from UTLA to Trust using Trust-UTLA mapping in covid19.nhs.data)
  3. convolution from cases to admissions (scaled; cases mapped to Trusts as above)

All models are trained on the last 6 weeks of data (from 25 April) and forecasts are made for the following 14 days.

Note: The following Trusts/UTLAs have been temporarily excluded from this report due issues with the underlying case forecasts in one or more associated UTLAs: St Helens And Knowsley Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust (UTLA: Halton), Northumbria Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust (UTLA: Northumberland), Warrington And Halton Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust (UTLA: Halton).

Current ensemble forecast

By recent observed admissions

By forecast admissions

Probability of increase (scatter)

Probability of increase (map)

Current case-convolution forecast

By recent observed admissions

By forecast admissions

Probability of increase (scatter)

Case-hospitalisation ratio

Past ensemble forecasts

Areas of interest

Below is more detailed information about potential Trusts of interest, defined as Trusts where more than 20% of patients are admitted from one of the following UTLAs: Blackburn with Darwen, Manchester, Birmingham, Gloucestershire.